India clocks 7.7 per cent GDP growth for Q4FY18

Moody's cuts India's 2018 growth forecast to 7.3% from 7.5

India clocks 7.7 per cent GDP growth for Q4FY18

Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday cut India's 2018 growth forecast to 7.3 per cent from the previous estimate of 7.5 per cent, saying the economy is in cyclical recovery but higher oil prices and tighter financial conditions will weigh on the pace of acceleration.

The GDP growth data released yesterday presents an optimistic picture of the economy, reflected in y-o-y growth for Q4, especially for construction and manufacturing sectors, Ficci President Rashesh Shah said. That's a big jump from the revised 7% growth rate recorded the previous quarter.

It, however, kept growth expectation for 2019 remains unchanged at 7.5 per cent.

The gross value addition (GVA) for the January-March quarter expanded at 7.6 per cent from from 6 per cent a year ago, data showed. The sharp uptick in the construction GVA growth in Q4 FY2018 benefited from the trend in its inputs, such as cement and steel consumption, and activity in the infrastructure sector (including affordable housing), even as real estate and industrial capex is yet to pick up and consumer sentiment is yet to recover appreciably. "On balance, GDP and GVA growth are expected to improve to 7.1% and 7.0%, respectively, in FY2019, from 6.7% and 6.5%, respectively, in FY2018".

"A Dollars 10/bl increase in crude prices can impact growth by ~ 20-30 bps". But private investment is not expected to boost growth significantly over the next few quarters, given the high level of slack capacity and lending constraints in the banking sector.

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India's growth performance in the third quarter and fourth quarter implies that these shocks have worn off considerably, stated ANZ.

"We expect RBI to revise its policy stance in June and follow it up with a hike of 25 bps in Aug policy".

The rebound in growth reinforces that the economy is back on track and is set for a strong recovery after the period of disruptions sparked by demonetisation and GST implementation, industry body CII said in a statement.

Going forward, economists look bullish on the Indian economy's growth considering that robust auto sales growth and rising rural and urban consumption will aid better growth in the upcoming quarters.

In a video posted on his Facebook on Sunday (Jun 3), Najib said the Barisan Nasional government had conducted years of studies and found that while the HSR would cost RM70 billion, it would contribute RM209 billion (US$52 billion) to Malaysia's Gross Domestic Product. He said he did not see any co-relation between oil prices and GDP growth and the fiscal deficit would remain as per the targets.

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